Cotton market, chemical fiber market, market conditions
[Research on the recent profitability of chemical fiber market]
Release date:[2018/6/29] Is reading[252]次

Recently, the cotton staged a "roller coaster" market, which was followed by a sudden surge, followed by a sharp fall. On June 5th, with the exception of the Zheng 1903 contract, the remaining contracts were all capped at the daily limit. If the skyrocketing is due to the weather, what causes the crash?

Before this, Zheng cotton has risen continuously from the fundamentals, and the irrational rise in the futures side has also led to fierce fluctuations in the spot price of cotton and higher transaction rates of reserve cotton. In order to stabilize market sentiment, China Reserve Cotton Management Co., Ltd. released the “Announcement on the Matters Relevant to Reserves of Cotton in 2017/2018” on June 2 and requested that cotton reserve trades be limited to textile cotton companies participating in the bidding. Stopping non-cotton cotton companies from participating in the bidding process, and the cotton products purchased by textile cotton companies are also limited to the company's own use and may not be resold.

In addition, the China Cotton Association also released news that after investigation and communication with relevant departments, it was confirmed that China has sufficient reserve stocks to protect the demand for rotation, and it can also increase market supply by issuing additional cotton import quotas and other measures. The supply quantity is not There is a shortage problem.

Affected by the above policy controls and spot affluent news, on June 4th, the cotton market fled large amounts of funds, and Zheng Cotton started the path of plunging, with a drop of over a thousand points.


Chemical fiber market: PTA and filaments have declined in profit due to the off-season

Concerned by market sentiment caused by OPEC's production increase plan and long-term bearish pressures such as the strengthening of the US dollar, international oil prices fell broadly for two weeks in a row. On June 5, US crude oil began to rise slightly, but the possibility of continued decline may not be ruled out later. On the PX side, many companies such as Tianjin Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical raised 300 yuan/ton from June 1, and the current quotation is still at 7800 yuan/ton.

Looking at the PTA again, the PTA1809 contract oscillated between 5648-5778 in recent days. Due to less than expected inventory destocking, on June 5th, domestic PTA spot market prices fell slightly, and the average price of Eastern China's offer was raised near 5,768.18 yuan/ton, which was 0.33% lower than the previous day's price. Reported at 5750-5800 yuan / ton from the mention of the port. Affected by the increase in PX prices, the PTA spread narrowed on a week-on-week basis and earnings declined.

In terms of polyester filaments, major manufacturers in Tongxiang, Shaoxing, and Xiaoshan districts reported stabilization, with individual specifications falling by 100-150, a week-on-week decline, but rose by more than 1,000 yuan/ton over the same period of last year, and profitability was still at a relatively high level. The operating rate of the terminal loom was reduced to 84% due to environmental impact, so the inventory increased, but it was still lower than the same period of last year.

By comparison, when the cotton market plummets, the chemical fiber market is relatively stable.

For the cotton market, industry analysts said that this fall is a major correction in the trend. Since June and July are off-season, cotton fears will continue to fall, but in the long run it will still be bullish, but it will be a slow cow. . In August, Xinmian went public and bought support. It does not rule out the possibility that funds will continue to be hyped.

For the chemical fiber market, it is also facing an off-season, and downstream demand has weakened. Polyester filaments and other chemical fiber products will continue to operate weakly later.

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